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It looks like marriage equality advocates in Washington have been doing their homework. For the 6th year running, the number of pro-equality voters in Washington state has increased.
Washington offers full domestic partnerships to same-sex couples and to elder heterosexual couples, but a 1998 law limits civil marriage to heterosexual couples in the state.
The Washington Poll just released the results (PDF) from their annual fall poll of voters on questions including this one:
Q: Which of the following statements best describes your views on the issue of same-sex marriage?Gay and lesbian couples should have the same legal right to marry as straight couples 43% Gay and lesbian couples should be able to have the same legal rights as straight couples but it should not be called marriage 22% There should be domestic partnerships that give gay and lesbian couples only some of the benefits and protections of marriage 15% There should be no legal recognition of gay and lesbian couples 17% Don’t know 3%
State legislative leaders have been indicating that 2012 may be the year to bring a marriage equality bill up for a vote. Apparently in response, Washington Poll asked this timely question and got a very encouraging response:
Next year the legislature could pass a law allowing gay and lesbian couples to get married. If that happens, there could be a referendum in which voters would be asked to approve or reject the law. If such a referendum were held today:
Would you vote YES — that is, to keep a law in place allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry OR would you vote NO, against the law — to make it so that gay and lesbian couples could not marry?
Yes – keep law in place – strongly 47% Yes – keep the law in place – not strong 8% No – against the law – not strong 7% No – against the law – strongly 31% Undecided 7%
Grouping the “yes” and “no” responses together, 55% of Washington voters would defend a marriage equality law at the polls if it went to a referendum. Only 38% would vote against marriage equality. That result is almost identical to the September, 2011 result from the Strategies 360 poll of likely voters which posed the question more harshly, asking “Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?” 54% answered “legal” and 35% answered “illegal”.
Of course we all know that if a marriage equality law passes in Washington, National Organization for Marriage (NOM) will swoop into the state and drop a load of scare ads on mothers of young children. This will cause some voters to backslide on their previous commitment to equality. But you can counter the NOM effect if you immunize friends, family and co-workers now through conversations about why marriage equality is important to you and to your children.
And it really must be now, since we cannot change voters’ attitudes on marriage equality during the course of a referendum campaign. The key to beating NOM is to have those conversations now and not put them off until crunch time.
2 Comments
I’m encouraged that attitudes are changing. Have they changed enough? That’s the big question. Relying on polls is a dicey proposition, especially when it comes to our issues. There was a recent Elway Research poll that asked potential voters if they would “support legalizing homosexual marriage in Washington State.” 48% said “yes”, 44 said “no”. The rest, 8%, are presumably “undecided”. If you look back at past ballot measures on our issues, and then look at the polling that happened beforehand, you would usually get a close prediction if you added the “undecideds” to those who would vote against us. The polls leading up to the Prop 8 vote are a good example. Here, the Elway poll should be interpreted as 48% likely yes and 52% likely no.
As for the Washington Poll asking if they would vote to keep or reject a marriage equality law in a referendum, I trust the 47% figure. I would not trust the 8% soft supporters. I wonder if they could be swayed by arguments about how marriage equality would cost state taxpayers millions of dollars at a time when prisoners are being released early and teachers are being laid off due to budget cuts. (benefit parity under the DP law does not take effect until 2014).
The Washington Poll citing 43% in favor of full equality is also illustrative.
I agree the polls show we’ve made a lot of progress. Enough, however, to survive a referendum? I don’t know. Will we get help from the national organizations to help fend off NOM and their allies?
I’m not sure if this should make a difference as to whether to try to pass a marriage equality bill next term. Some people think it’s better to not to try if it might get rejected at the ballot box. Others think its better to pass the bill, even if it’s likely to get overturned, than to wait. I’m tired of trying to understand the reasoning behind each argument. I wish I could spend nine months somewhere else during the referendum battle. It wouldn’t be good for my kid to see me upset all the time.
It can be difficult to compare different polls. That 2011 Elway poll you mention was commissioned by Gary Randall’s outfit, Faith and Freedom Foundation, and used terminology known to elicit more negative responses. Here is how they asked the question:
On another topic, do you support legalizing homosexual marriage in Washington State?
That kind of language may reflect the sort of negative ads we can expect to see from Randall & Co. if there is a referendum, but it doesn’t come close to the language that will be seen on the ballot.
Also, the 2011 Elway poll sample was biased towards the demographic less likely to support equality. A full 68% of their sample population was over 50 years old whereas only 10% of the sample was in the 18-35 y.o. age range.
All that aside, I think your questions are good ones and I so understand your comment about being upset for 9 months and the effect these campaigns have on people’s well-being. For my part, I’m confident that Sen Murray, and Rep Pedersen won’t move legislation and ERW won’t push for it unless they’re convinced that it has a good likelihood of surviving a referendum. It is my impression that they’re careful, pragmatic people who will move on this legislation when they can win.