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Yesterday, Pam treated us to the latest video Human Rights Campaign has released in their New Yorkers for Marriage Equality campaign. This time featuring tough-guy, Law & Order: SVU star and staple of New York celebrity sightings, Christopher Meloni. He says:
“I believe in love, and family, and fairness, and that's why I'm a New Yorker for marriage equality. Already five states and the District of Columbia have marriage equality. It's time for New York to lead again. Join me in Supporting New Yorkers for marriage equality.”
The public opinion polling in the Empire state seems to have become a picture of success. Siena College also released their latest poll of New York State. The trend on marriage equality is still continuing upward. A very strong majority showing support in Siena's latest poll [PDF] of New York voters. 58% say they are supportive, compared with a mere 36% who are opposed:
Same sex marriage now has more support than it’s ever had, with voters 55 and older and Republicans being nearly evenly divided, and voters younger than 55 and Democrats and independents being strongly supportive,” [Siena College pollster Steve] Greenberg said.
Legalizing same-sex marriage was also the number 3 priority cited on the legislative to-do list (distantly, after property tax cap and ethics reform).
Such a pity New York is one of the few states where a ballot initiative isn't possible. More news about New York's move toward marriage equality after the fold.
This Siena College Poll was conducted April 4-6, 2011 by telephone calls to 777 New York State registered voters. It followed tough budget battle which Cuomo is said to have largely won (and, alas, many feel New York progressives lost). The poll also showed Governor Andrew Cuomo's approval rating to be stratospheric, 78/13. Considering reports are he's making marriage equality a real priority, that can only be good news.
Despite Senator Tom Duane's assurances in January that there would be a bill introduced “within weeks,” that has yet to be done.
But the Governor says the effort is on-track, from last week's New York magazine:
According to Marriage Equality New York head Ron Zacchi, Governor Cuomo has told state LGBT leaders he expects a vote on a marriage-equality bill in the State Senate in “six to eight weeks, or maybe sooner.”
Reports are his task force has been meeting consistently to map out strategies.
The bill has passed the State Assembly three times, last time with five Republican votes. I have, however, heard at least one insider express concern if the votes are there this go around, due to Democratic losses in 2010. We don't need a repeat of Maryland, where all the focus is on the Senate, and the lower house fails.
In the Senate, the best-case scenario would require a minimum of three Republican votes. A piece of good news comes on that front via the New York Daily News, the 800-lb gorilla of NY GOP politics, NYC's Mayor Mike Bloomberg is ready to engage:
Mayor Bloomberg is vowing to push state Senate Republicans to support gay marriage.
“If there's a chance to pass a bill, I will do it,” Bloomberg said. “I'll go lobby.” [...]
Bloomberg may have the juice to change a few Republican minds: He's been the Senate GOP's largest financial benefactor.
In the 2010 cycle, the Mayor backed six Senate Republicans to the tune of $500,000 according to the New York Times. That isn't chump change for a state Senate race. Four of the six lost, which only means the Mayor's substantial purse strings are up for grabs in 2012. If candidates would like to ingratiate themselves to the Mayor, this could present a truly golden opportunity. Bloomberg has been a consistent and vocal supporter of marriage equality.
LGBT New Yorkers currently enjoy the option of marriage equality by simply going to another jurisdiction such as adjoining Connecticut. The state currently recognizes out of jurisdiction unions. A friend of mine dropped a bundle of cash in CT just this past weekend to tie the knot. (Mavel tov!)
It's a pity we couldn't keep that money in the local economy. Shouldn't he have the option to see his “dream come true” in Grand Prospect Hall, like every other red-blooded Brooklynite?
Let's stop shipping money over state lines, end the Metro North gay marital express!
Grassroots organizing and actions in New York state can be found at Marriage Equality New York. There is a outreach and education day scheduled for May 9. Multiple orgs are collaborating, including Empire State Pride Agenda and Marriage Equality New York. Marriage Equality, New York's Trans discrimination bill, GENDA and other issues of LGBT concern will be on the agenda.
24 Comments
Not to be a downer, but . . . Even with 58% support in a respected poll, if there were an initiative or referendum, it would depend more on who would come out and actually bother to vote.
Let’s say that out of that 58%, even 10% woud be directly affected, the other 48% might not come out to vote solely on that issue. If there was a presidential election, you get more people out to vote, but even then only just over half of registered voters even bother.
The opponents are highly organized and ghave a lot of money to deovte to “get out the vote” efforts – they can muster something like ten times the money that supporters can muster.
Plus, I don’t believe that human rights should be subject to a popular vote anyway (though I would take a positive vote!)
Why even talk about that re: NY?Was Clark incorrect in stating this? “New York is one of the few states where a ballot initiative isn’t possible. “
No referenda in New York State.This question will not be put on the ballot. Period. It’s up to the Legislature. The New York State Court of Appeals (our highest court) ruled the state government had a rational basis for keeping marriage unequal, so its not a Constitutional issue (the only ones that go to the public for a vote). They batted the ball over to the Legislature, which will vote on the issue again at some point. If it passes, it’s not subject to some wacky recall effort like other states.
Another recent poll in the same areaApologies for a little OT, but it’s a recent marriage poll in New Hampshire.
The “don’t worry about a backlash” argument could reasonably be made for states in the region with this poll.
http://www.publicpolicypolling…
Of course I’m right!
I’m always right, except when I’m wrong. But, yes, I’d investigated it, when I saw how lopsided the polling was getting of late. I thought, “Shit, we could win at the ballot box. Wouldn’t that be a kick in the ass to NOM?”
Of course, in general, Joann’s right, but I don’t think it would be a real problem, it wouldn’t pass 58/36, but a 22 point differential is a lot to make up. There aren’t that many crazy fundies, anywhere, and there would be a lot of excited homos.
But, it’s all hypothetical.
It’s time to put to rest the notion that the peoplewill not vote for marriage equality.
I’m all for ‘rights not being put up for a vote’ as a theoretical principle, but if the choice is between the legislature voting and the people voting, and the legislature is too cowardly to vote, then let the people vote.
We can certainly win a referendum in Rhode Island where the legislature seems to be too cowardly to vote, and we shouldn’t be afraid of a referendum in New Hampshire if it comes down to it. And in 2012 we can win a referendum in California.
Why is a ballot initiative not available?I’m just curious.
Because there isn’t a provision for one in the new york constitution.
Budget passing good news for marriage equality?Seems like the Republicans are happy with Cuomo. Could the budget passing help us gain marriage equality? When Paterson was in office, seemed like the only thing the Republicans wanted to do was humiliate him at every turn and vote down anything he wanted.
Who knows? Maybe Cuomo cut some back room deal: I’ll help you get a budget you can live with; you make sure I get some Republicans to vote for marriage equality.
I wonder…We’ve been hearing from the right wing for the past few years that a direct vote on an issue decided by a 50%+1 majority of the people who show up to vote on any given day is the only acceptable absolute authority in a republic. I wonder if they’d be willing to follow their own logic by demanding that New Yorkers be given access to what the fundies insist is the absolute minimum standard for democracy?
There just isn’t a mechanism in NY gov’tto turn a question over to the voters. No one, not the voters, not the legialture is empowered to make a ballot initiative.
We’d have to convene a constitutional convention to do so. (Probably not worth it, as that would empower the crazy right to add some awful amendments of their own.)
I think you know the answer to that. Someday soon we’ll win a ballot measure, maybe overturning Prop 8 in California in 2012, as EQCA is considering.
Wanna bet NOM comes up with a reason why the people didn’t speak right then? They will soon fall out of love with the idea of majority rule, and have to find another tactic.
I have a hard time believingthat Cuomo would care enough about marriage equality to use the budget to leverage it.
But the budget should please the GOP more than Democrats, as it’s pretty much a progressive nightmare that cuts services for homeless, childcare, healthcare, affordable housing while preserving the status quo for the rich.
Now, whether they are pleased or not is another thing.
But a 78% approval rating and yes, he’s said to be friendly with the GOP, is a recommend. Hopefully we can get Ken Mehlman, Ted Olsen, and or other high profile Republicans to engage our Senate, as Bloomberg has said he will.
Not having ballot initiatives …… is still a good thing, even if the poll seems great and Albany politics totally corrupt.
Ah, EQCA…I was at the founding meeting of what was then the California Alliance for Pride and Equality. I wasn’t crazy about the approach taken (more insider lobbying than grassroots, and I was an 18-year-old college student at UC Santa Cruz), but it’s good to see that they can sometimes come up with decent plans. I hope it gets off the ground.
Of course, NOM will insist that the only real “voice of the people” is the vote that went their way — anything that happens afterward couldn’t possibly be a change in public opinion (because that never happens), and so must be a sign that the evil homosexualists have corrupted the system.
“Wanna bet NOM comes up with a reason why the people didn’t speak right then?”They’ll start to disparage the “activist voters”, lol.
Yeah, not a fan of them. Just noting the irony of the one time we could use one to our advantage.
Two words will kill any move towards gay marriage or LGBT rightsand those two words will kill it deader than a doornail.
Those words?
Ruben Diaz
A couple of thingsWe’ve lost ballot initiatives where we originally had poll numbers on our side, after NOM spends millions on their usual “fear the gays” propaganda campaign.
And in NY, there are vast areas upstate where Dems are more seldom heard than the “discouraging word” in Home on the Range.
And…the Dems won’t risk the Hispanic bloc, led by Evangelicals and Ruben Diaz, defecting to the Republicans again…that was a fiasco last year..
Romanian SPAMHe’s on a roll.
True enough, but…he probably can’t single-handedly stop it. He is only one vote, he lost all his corrupt buddies, (Espada, Monserrate) and honestly, as an odd man out in the Dem caucus, wields less power than in the past.
This isn’t about marriage equalityIt’s about marriage convenience and I still don’t have protections for my civil rights.
just sayin’ . . .
That is trueOTOH, the Dems in the NY Senate are DOWN 32-30 for 2011 and 2012 – so Ruben Diaz does not have a personal veto as he did last time around, when the Republicans were voting en masse in party unity, to set up a situation where anything that did get through had to have 100% of Democratic support to getthe 32 votes (in 2009-2010, it was 32-30 Democrats on top). In order to neutralize Diaz and the few other bad apples, the Dems need a 35-27 or 36-26 majority for 2013 (the 2012 elections? after the reapportionment?)
Marriage and GENDA need Republican supprt to pass – and the support of the Republican senate leadership to just get to a vote.
It would be in their best interest to pass both bis this yer
The lack of ballot initiatives is a GOOD thingI am glad that new York does not have initiative or recall. And referendum is limited.
I don’t like the idea of putting people’s individual rights up to a majority vote, particularly when a “majority” gets preferential treatment over a minority. That’s a clssic case of tyranny.
I don’t mind ballot initiatives *if*they could be limited to increasing rights, not diminishing them. Proposed ballot measures also could benefit from advisory judicial review. Unfortunately, it seems that few of the state laws governing referenda and initiatives were carefully thought out to minimize the pitfalls.
But the ballot is the only way to move certain issues like death with dignity and marijuana decriminalization/legalization that are too hot for most politicians to touch, and for that reason I’m not categorically against them.