Friend of the Blend, former U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal (D-NC) wanted to share his latest piece on DADT with the coffeehouse. It’s a peek behind the political curtain…
DADT: Behind the Scenes
By Jim Neal
Given my overexposure to US politics and the lessons gleaned from my unsuccessful candidacy for the Senate in 2008, I now get to be soothsayer of sorts. I advise clients on how certain legislation of interest is likely to exit the Congress. What I do is piece the mosaic together in a similar fashion to how a detective investigates a murder.
The public, even most of those supposedly in-the-know, often don’t grasp the dynamics of political inside baseball. The best illustration is how people interpret roll call votes. The overwhelming majority of pundits and activists assess a politician’s vote on a piece of legislation with the strict constructionism of a Justice Scalia. In reality, roll call votes are quite deceptive and misleading. Today’s murder of DADT by the Senate is a case in point.A strict interpretation of the 57-40 roll call vote to proceed to debate over repealing DADT suggests that if Democratic Senators Joe Manchin (D- W.Va.) and Blanche Lincoln (D- Ark.) been present and voted Aye- bumping that tally to 59- then Senator Scott Brown might have felt pressure to get in line, given his expressed public support for repeal of DADT and upcoming re-election bid. That scenario seems all the more probable given the biggest surprise of the day. Senator Susan Collins (R- Maine), who had agreed to support repeal of DADT only in the event that four days were allotted for a full debate, apparently abandoned that position and voted in favor of repeal.
That yarn is simply not the reality. The cloture motion was doomed from the moment Speaker Reid impulsively decided to bring the vote before the Senate today. Here’s the real skinny as best I can piece it together.
Senator Collins did not soften her conditions. She was able to make a symbolic Aye vote because she knew — as did others — that she had cover from her Republican colleagues, either or both of Senators Murkowski and Brown. In turn, Speaker Reid cared less about how the arch-conservative Senator Manchin voted. It didn’t matter. The Speaker wanted to clear the docket and get DADT out of the way. Other legislation in the pipeline takes priority, namely the tax cut bill and ratification of the START Treaty.
As for Senator Lincoln, she was at a dental appointment . What has gone unsaid is that she also wasn’t aware that Speaker Reid was bringing the cloture motion before the Senate today. That is the only reason she wasn’t present. She wasn’t needed. If she were, the vote would have been delayed.With that as a backdrop, the drama will now move forward with a stand-alone bill to repeal DADT to be sponsored by Senators Lieberman, Collins and Udall (D- Colo.). Using a Senate procedure known as Rule 14, Speaker Reid can bring the legislation directly to the floor and bypass the Armed Services Committee.
Any hope of repealing DADT under a prospective Lieberman bill will require very tight coordination and communication between Senators Collins, Lieberman and their caucuses. Clearly there will have to be ample time allotted for GOP Senators to excoriate the legislation. However, this bill has no future if the Senate does not stay in session beyond December 17th as is currently planned.
Most Senators are anxious to get home and open Christmas presents and toast the New Year. They need to consider the peoples’ business first. Given that the President has effectively ceded control of the Senate calendar to the GOP via his so-called compromise framework on tax cut legislation, Democrats have no choice but to roll with the punches. That will require Speaker Reid to keep the Senate in session for as long as it takes. Only then might Senator Collins- with Senators Murkowski and Brown covering her back- take center stage as the Diva of DADT.I hope that I will hear the Lady from Maine sing by the end of this session. Talk about an operatic production….
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22 Comments


Needs editingThere is no “Speaker of the Senate”. Reid’s title is Majority Leader or Leader for short. This is the sort of detail you’d want to get right in a political consulting business I would think.
Typical….To be brutally honest I’ll be quite happy to see this stand-alone bill fail as well, because it doesn’t go far enough. A Bill could be used to repeal the DADT policy, while also giving the Military a separate congressional order that would deal with the military’s internal medical policies that ban Transgender & Intersex folk from serving. It’s doable, though all of the gay “rights” orgs are too greedy to do more than focus directly on their own. This is even happening in the courts, as not a single gay org has even attempted to bring the case of a dismissed transgender service-member forward.
I want to see DADT repealed, though not if it means that non cisgender folks are hit with DADT conditions for the next 20 years or more.
This incremental shit in terms of rights where gays get first priority needs to stop. Fight both battles now, or piss off as you aren’t fighting for real “Equality”, just your own self interests.
HuffPosigh I didn’t notice the Huffington Post link. A red flag for inaccuracy sadly.
Thank youIt’s wrong on his HuffPo article as well.
Editthank you for pointing out that I mistakenly referred to Majority Leader Reid as Speaker Reid- and that such distracted you so as to ignore the gist of the post.
Guilty as charged.
an asideI don’t think- right now- that the stand-alone bill has a snowball’s chance in hell of passing. The Administration’s priorities are (i) tax cuts and (ii) ratification of the START Treaty.
Plain English: our civil rights are taking a back seat to ratification of a treaty which could wait until 2011. If repeal were a priority, the Senate would be staying in session until January 02, 2011 11:59:50pm EST instead of rushing to adjourn this Friday. God forbid the POTUS would dare call a special session of Congress to consider passage of a landmark step forward in the dynamic evolution of civil rights in America. Instead, repeal of DADT is yet another legislative “priority” headed to the political graveyard of abandoned promises. It’s 1992 redux. It was perfectly appropriate the the President drug out Bill Clinton to shill for tax cut legislation last week.
Remember ACT UP: Silence = Death; red paint splattered on the steps of St. Patrick’s? Covert actions against high-profile targets (no- not death squads..) The 1992 demonstrations which erupted in LA following Republican Governor Wilson’s veto of civil rights legislation known as AB 101. (See http://tinyurl.com/29ubxof .) Those collective actions- esp. by ACT UP- had profound effects on public policy.
I admit to being as complicit as anyone for my contribution to the passivity of the LGBT community. Where is the anger? Why do we tolerate 18 years’of pandering with nary a peep? Haven’t we learned from the history of civil rights struggles? Are we too comfortable to put any skin in the game?
I don’t have the answers. I am deeply troubled that we are failing ourselves and generations behind us. Organizations like GetEqual are attempting to mobilize but are subjected to pointless, juvenile criticism from all the splintered self-interests in the LGBT community.
Years ago a wise sage pointed out to me that one who would attack a transgendered person would also attack me. He was right. Acknowledging that simple fact realigned my narrow definition of inclusion in the broader gay community. There are no Class A gays, lesbians, bisexuals, transgendered persons, queers, fairies or whatever label you wear. For all of us, we are Class B citizens. Pink Triangles invisible but embedded nonetheless. Until we put aside petty arguments over who’s the smartest person in the room, who’s the most aggrieved class and the like- then we are missing the opportunity to harness the defining characteristic we all share: exile on the fringes of a supposed liberal democratic republic. Our passivity does nothing to mitigate the chronic realities that young gay people are dying at their own hands and that all of us are being attacked more than any other minority cohort. Whether you drive a BMW or ride the subway, you share second class rights.
Do you, like me, edit the Pledge of Allegiance by reciting “….with liberty and justice for some?”
I don’t have the answers- but I’ll be damned if I’m not asking questions we should be considering and discussing in small local cells better-suited to formulate tactical action plans.
jim neal
jim@jameswneal.com
I think if nothing is done on DADT in this lame duck session it’ll be 6 years at least before it ever comes up again for a serious vote. If Obama continues on his present course the Democrats are going to face another losing election in 2012 and a utterly depressing 4 years with the possibility of the Republicans controlling both houses of Congress and the White House.
Interesting InsightI think with any blog entry an important piece of the conversation that it spawns is answering questions like… Does this new insight suggest a change in behaviors? And what happens next?
Some blog entries end with a call to action like call your senator at this phone number, or show up at a rally at this location and time. For those, the answers to the what do we do now and what happens next questions are pretty obvious.
When Pam & other bloggers recently called for the resignation of Joe from HRC, my addition to conversation was, okay, a shakeup with HRC would be great, but it “still feels like its only half the conversation if we say get rid of someone, but don’t say who we’d support” especially when one of the criticisms we are calling them out on is a lack of community understanding/support. And sure enough another blog entry came along to have that discussion and various names and desired leadership qualities emerged from that discussion.
But sometimes the answer isn’t so obvious, especially when its dealing with new or deeper insights. And that is, I believe, the case for this discussion.
Where do we go from here? What is the actionable part of having this new insight?
-Do we need to be mounting a full scale campaign calling on our senators to stay in session past the end of the week?
-What do you see DADT repeal’s chances as in 2011? Do we need to stick with the legislative push and redouble our efforts for 2011?
-Do we need to turn our efforts away from lobbying our elected officials and towards support groups like GetEqual? And hold more rallies, vigils, protests, and events?
-Should we turn towards groups like Lambda Legal, the ACLU, and maybe even LCR (okay maybe not since they’d be as apt to use their resources against equality as for it) in a focus on winning equality through the courts?
If we’re burning the old playbook, which this behind the scenes accounting suggests we probably ought to do, then we need to think about what comes next… writing the new playbook. Given your inside look, which of the paths laid out above (or other paths if you have other ideas) should go in the new playbook?
Let’s speak plainlyReid doesn’t like Gays. They alienate his LDS base. Obama’s not too keen on them either, they alienate his AA Evangelical base. Two groups that actually turn up to vote in numbers larger than their absolute size would indicate, and both of whom might well not just stay at home, but vote GOP if slighted.
As long as they can tell their bases in private that they’re only playing lip-service, and to watch their actions, and ignore their words… while telling the Gays to listen to their words, and ignore their lack of progress against the Big Bad GOP… they maximise their vote.
Nothin personal – just business.
Forget about “principle”: the ENDA debacle showed that Gays were willing to jettison those to get what they wanted. The DNC will come back for you later, incremental progress….
I admit that the extraordinary lengths Reid has gone to to make sure DADT repeal fails, and Obama’s Scorched Earth policy in the courts, has made things a bit too obvious.
That reinforces the ideathat the legislative route isn’t working for us. So where do you feel we should aim our efforts now?
Stop being defensiveYou can’t credibly speak as an “insider” if you can’t even get Harry Reid’s title right.
AgreedIt’s now or, at best, probably another decade or more.
Let’s also not forget that the same goes for ENDA, which the Democrats buried and killed in a House subcommittee in late 2009.
Cut the ENDA snarkunless you want to re-open the whole debate, as the gender identity provisions are the principal reason Dems buried ENDA and killed it. Some of us have been willing to look past that, but, please, re-kindle the fight by being a snarky winner.
Actually, the latest Pew poll showsthat a slim majority of black evangelicals are in favor of DADT repeal.
If one makes a mistake & it’s pointed out,it creates a much better impression if one just admits it & doesn’t flavor the admission with sarcasm.
Personally, I don’t care about the Congress Crittersbackroom deals. All I care about is results. If they can’t or won’t vote for ALL OF THEIR CONSTITUENTS then they aren’t upholding their oath of office and should be impeached, plain and simple. Either move forward and do something for your constituents, or get out of the game. I don’t care what the WH priorities are and I don’t care about these people’s bigotry influencing their rabble rousing and dog and pony shows for the public. Stop wasting everyone’s time trying to triangulate and position yourself for the next election and get down to business and fucking vote yes or no and then get on with business.
evangelics don’t voteat least not here in WA, where voting propensity among evangelicals is low.
Great questionJake.
(LOL- look at the time stamp on my comment above. I wrote that after I had wiped out the entirety of my original comment, failing to include any conclusion. Thanks for popping me.)
So here’s a shot at responding to your questions (in order) and the larger action agenda:
1. No. It’s too late to mount any campaign to keep the Senate in session. Regardless, all that would engender is lip service.
2. 2011? No way, a waste of energy, very inefficient. The 111th Congress was arguably our last shot on goal in the foreseeable future. DADT is- I believe- now in the hands of the Courts. I have written off Congress and the Administration- unless someone can devise a way to partner an equality campaign with the banking/pharma and/or oil industries?
3. Absolutely. Lobbying hasn’t yielded jack. For 18 years…..
GetEqual is at the forefront of embracing a new form of engagement. They’re willing to get their nails dirty, mix it up and take people out of their comfort zone. I understand that they are planning to increase their emphasis on going local with their efforts, aka grass roots. Thus far, only a small number of GetEqual activists have been engaged in a lot of actions around the country. They need numbers and organization at the local level. From personal experiences in such actions in California back in the 1990s, I’m confident they can be extremely impactful. Today- it’s easier than ever to amplify a small action across the national media given the attraction of cable news to controversy.
Think local, co-ordinate global.
4. Legal challenges? Boies/Olson are taking the gay marriage debate to the SCOTUS, and those much-maligned Log Cabin Republicans are the only LGBT special interest group that has managed to stop DADT- if only for a day- over the past 18 years. When Secy. Gates voices concern over a Court-imposed overturn of DADT, he’s alluding to that injunction. And- I understand that more legal challenges to DADT are in the wings.
That flank has a life unto itsef.
__
It’s not melodramatic to continually remind people that gay teens are killing themselves, gay people are being attacked and many many more gay people live in fear for their jobs as much today as ever. Especially in the little pockets of America where people don’t read the NY Times daily.
Telling them “it gets better” isn’t enough. We need to make it better. Silence is a cousin to complicity.
Nope… now the momentum is with the courts.SLDN filed suite in NoCal for 3 officers today and will continue to do so 'all around the country!' http://tinyurl.com/2czv5ov
Here are the FIRST THREE of ? #.
You go SLDN and all the imminent plaintiffs!
PS. If you have any funds left post Holidays, I do believe SLDN will need them.
Session not over at the end of the week potentiallyhttp://firstread.msnbc.msn.com…
What if all the gays outed themselves at once?What if all the gays outed themselves at once?
Would there be enough gays in uniform that an en masse self outing would bring the services to a halt?
What if enough “allies” did the same?
Re. Stand-Alone Billsee http://tinyurl.com/22kepza