Tweet
While we’re waiting to learn the fate of Washington state’s anti-family Referendum 71 (all will be revealed by Saturday), let’s have a look at Larry Stickney’s computational logic.
July 22,2009THE MAIL-IN DEADLINE FOR THE R-71 PETITION IS TODAY!
IF YOU MISS TODAY’S DEADLINE, SIGNED PETITIONS MUST BE HAND DELIVERED TO CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS IN ARLINGTON BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK!
PLEASE DO NOT CUT THE PETITIONS AS THEY MUST BE RETURNED INTACT TO BE VALID!
URGENT: R-71 PETITIONS TODAY MUST BE MAILED TODAY TO BE COUNTED!
We are recieving (sic) signed R-71 petitions by the thousands daily!
All those caps – Larry sounds a bit desperate, doesn’t he? Here’s why that might be. Almost two weeks ago Larry claimed that they already had 75,000 signatures, half of the recommended goal of 150,000 raw signatures to yield the required 120,577 valid ones. By my calculations based on his reports, he should have already collected plenty of signatures before he wrote the panicked note above. So then why write it?
Missing Data
In his missive above, Larry neglects to tell us three pieces of information:
1. How many thousands of petitions he is receiving daily.
2. The average number of signatures on petitions. Each petition sheet has space for 20 signatures.
3. How many days he’s been receiving petitions by the thousands.
Computational Assumptions
Let us assume that “thousands” of petitions (P) means at least 2,000. Because Gary Randall says his followers are “tireless“, “above and beyond“, etc., let us further assume that each petition has the full compliment of 20 signatures (S). Finally, let us assume that Larry has received this flood of mailed petitions for two days (D) only.
The Calculation
(2,000 P)(20 S/P)(2 D) = 80,000 signatures received by Larry Stickney in the past two days.
Hmmmm….
Clearly, something doesn’t add up here. If Larry Stickney had received 80,000 new signatures in the past few days, when combined with the prior 75,000 he would already have more than enough to submit to the Secretary of State. So why the misspelled hysterics in caps above? Perhaps their estimate of 75,000 signatures from two weeks ago was inflated. Perhaps the completed petitions coming in this week are of poor quality because they contain few signatures each. Perhaps “thousands daily” is a profound exaggeration. Perhaps Larry and Gary incessantly having to repeat “PLEASE DO NOT CUT THE PETITIONS” means that a significant number of the daily thousands of petitions received are invalid.
Conclusion
It is entirely appropriate that Larry sounds desperate.
Join Washington Families Standing Together in their fight to defeat Referendum 71 by clicking on the graphics below.
1 Comment
They have 1 day to find 4% of their signaturesas per a precent email from Faith & Freedom Network’s Gary Randall:
“R71: Too Close To Call
R-71 petition signature gathering count is too close to call, so we are asking for your help in making one last push.
We feel that by tomorrow morning we will have the 120,577 signatures required, however we also know that some will be invalidated for various reasons. We do not have an adequate cushion of signatures.
We will be turning in the signatures tomorrow at 2 PM.
This is how you can make the difference.
First. If you can gather any additional signatures today, this evening or tomorrow morning, please do so. This will make the difference. If it were not critical, we would not ask.
Second. We are then asking you or someone you know, to drive the additional signatures to Olympia tomorrow [Saturday] at 2 PM and meet Larry Stickney and myself at the Northwest corner of the Capitol steps. We will be there to meet you and to deliver the signatures to the Secretary of State’s office.
We know there are several groups and individuals who are already at work on this Help Alert and will be meeting us there.
I will look forward to seeing you as well.
Thank you so much and God bless you.”
The question is will they turn them in if they don’t have the buffer considering that will make all the signatures public record?